Eastern Kentucky

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	271.0
Current RPI:	271
Expected SOS:	226
Current SOS:	226
Current Record:	9-20
Expected Record:	9-20
Current Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-5
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	217
Expected OOC SOS:	206

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-20	271.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	72-73	W	100%
11-13	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	A	85-75	L	0%
11-20	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	N	70-80	L	0%
11-22	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	N	83-62	L	0%
11-29	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	83-51	L	0%
12-2	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	H	70-65	W	100%
12-5	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	74-62	L	0%
12-10	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	91-63	L	0%
12-15	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	65-70	W	100%
12-18	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	H	83-66	W	100%
12-22	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	91-71	L	0%
12-28	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	76-58	L	0%
12-30	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	77-69	L	0%
1-4	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	82-85	L	0%
1-6	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	53-54	L	0%
1-11	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	70-78	W	100%
1-13	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	86-91	W	100%
1-18	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	67-70	L	0%
1-20	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	H	60-68	L	0%
1-25	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	90-84	L	0%
1-27	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	88-73	L	0%
2-1	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	63-98	L	0%
2-3	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	H	60-73	L	0%
2-8	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	69-70	L	0%
2-10	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	75-73	W	100%
2-15	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	84-73	L	0%
2-17	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	A	59-72	W	100%
2-22	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	91-88	W	100%
2-24	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	70-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Eastern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Eastern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	26.24	26.24	33.81	33.81	-8.49	-8.49
Jacksonville St.	OVC	4.32	4.32	60.00	60.00	0.86	0.86
Morehead St.	OVC	4.31	4.31	20.00	20.00	-2.58	-2.58
Belmont	OVC	4.30	4.30	70.97	70.97	1.80	1.80
Tennessee Tech	OVC	4.29	4.29	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.22	4.22	46.15	46.15	-0.32	-0.32
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.18	4.18	25.93	25.93	-2.01	-2.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.15	4.15	44.44	44.44	-0.46	-0.46
Austin Peay	OVC	2.64	2.64	51.72	51.72	0.09	0.09
Murray St.	OVC	2.64	2.64	82.14	82.14	1.70	1.70
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.63	2.63	32.14	32.14	-0.94	-0.94
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.59	2.59	27.59	27.59	-1.16	-1.16
Marshall	CUSA	1.96	1.96	68.75	68.75	0.73	0.73
Western Kentucky	CUSA	1.91	1.91	68.75	68.75	0.72	0.72
Rice	CUSA	1.80	1.80	17.86	17.86	-1.16	-1.16
Northern Kentucky	Horz	1.79	1.79	67.86	67.86	0.64	0.64
Oregon St.	P12	1.78	1.78	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi	SEC	1.75	1.75	35.48	35.48	-0.51	-0.51
Charleston Southern	BSth	1.72	1.72	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.72	1.72	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Jacksonville	ASun	1.72	1.72	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.72	1.72	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.72	1.72	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
Lipscomb	ASun	0.37	0.37	68.97	68.97	0.14	0.14
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.30	0.30	76.67	76.67	0.16	0.16
Chattanooga	SC	0.25	0.25	25.81	25.81	-0.12	-0.12
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.23	0.23	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.21	0.21	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
UAB	CUSA	0.19	0.19	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
IUPUI	Horz	0.18	0.18	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.17	0.17	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Washington	P12	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
USC Upstate	ASun	0.14	0.14	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.13	0.13	17.86	17.86	-0.09	-0.09
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
TCU	B12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Xavier	BE	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Idaho	BSky	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00